Could another firm have the lead down to single figures?

I’ve had it confirmed that the Populus December survey for the Times did take place over the weekend and if things are following their normal pattern we should find out about it tonight.

This will be the first public poll to have been carried out wholly after Mr. Brown’s PMQ performance last Wednesday – an event that has reverberated throughout the Westminster village and is helping shape the media narrative.

The story is now about Cameron’s faltering and the Brown come-back – the question is whether this is having an impact in the country at large?

Populus will be a good test because in both October and November it has recorded Tory leads of just ten percent – so if there has been progress we could be seeing a margin down to single figures.

A very large part of the movement in polls is not from switching between the parties but a change in the certainty to vote amongst party supporters. If things are going well in the media then that usually translates itself into higher certainty figures and bigger overall shares.

Will that happen tonight?

The rest of the week on PB I’m off on a short holiday and won’t be back until Friday evening. I’ll be doing the odd morning piece but the rest will be covered by guest slots and posts that have been prepared in advance.

Mike Smithson