CON 31% (+9.6)
LAB 34% (-8.7)
LD 12% (-6.4)
PC 15% (+2.4)

The first Wales-only YouGov poll

The much anticipated first YouGov voting intention poll of Welsh voters is just out and suggests that the Tories are going to make big gains in a part of the UK which used to be almost a blue-free zone. The comparisons above are with what actually happened in the Principality on May 5th 2005.

Then Labour won 29 of the 40 seats with the the Tories taking 3, the Lib Dems 4, Plaid 3 and one independent.

According to projections based on these numbers Labour could be down to just 20, the Tories on 10 seats which is a pretty good return for Brown’s party for barely one third of the votes.

In the Euro elections on June 4th, of course, the Tories came out as vote winners in Wales so today’s figures are not totally unexpected.

If these share actually happened then it would be the worst result for Labour in Wales since 1918. YouGov’s internet survey of 1,078 people was conducted on October 21-23.

There was an excellent analysis of general election prospects in Wales on PB2 yesterday by Meurig.

Mike Smithson