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Month: September 2009

How valid are ConHome’s polls?

How valid are ConHome’s polls?

Shouldn’t they be joining the British Polling Council? It’s become almost a regular occurrence. ConservativeHome (or ContinuityIDS as we used to call it) carries out a survey and up pops Tim Montgomerie to talk as though he is the official voice of the party’s grass-roots. But how much attention should we give to his polling? Are samples, for instance, weighted in line with the known demographics of the audience he is testing? What weightings are used? What is the precise…

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Is the problem now Brown’s handling – not the release itself?

Is the problem now Brown’s handling – not the release itself?

Telegraph Can we expect more contradictions to come out? The war of words over the release of the Lockerbie bomber takes moves forward another step this morning with an interview in the Daily Telegraph which appears to contradict what the Prime Minister was saying earlier in the week. Then Brown was adamant that “There was no conspiracy, no cover-up, no double dealing, no deal on oil, no attempt to instruct Scottish ministers, no private assurances.” That’s all very hard to…

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The Irish referendum – it’s getting tighter

The Irish referendum – it’s getting tighter

Irish Times A new poll in the Irish Times today suggests that the outcome of the October 2nd referendum on whether Ireland should ratify Lisbon is getting tighter. The figures are with changes on the last poll three months ago: YES 46% (-8): NO 29% (+1): DON’T KNOW 25% At this stage before the 2008 referendum an Irish Times poll had YES 35%: NO 18%: DON’T KNOW 47%. The actual result, as I’m sure we are all aware, was a…

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So could there be an October coup?

So could there be an October coup?

Guardian What do we think of Kettle’s Friday column? If you thought that all the issues over the Labour leadership are now history and that Brown will lead the party into the next election then check out Martin Kettle in the Guardian. He writes:“….An active network of MPs and peers now exists, involving some names you might expect, but also others – including big ones – whose participation would surprise you. This group, like probably the majority of Labour MPs,…

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Why my money is on Farage in Buckingham

Why my money is on Farage in Buckingham

Will Bercow be portrayed as “Labour’s candidate”? Just reflecting further overnight about the announcement that UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, will fight John Bercow, in Buckingham I’ve come to the view that the 4/1 that’s available is one of the best general elections bets about. Firstly try to envisage how the campaign will work in this true-blue seat at the election. Because there will be no official Conservative candidate the Farage campaign will be able to present their man as the…

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Joyce: Minor irritant or major problem?

Joyce: Minor irritant or major problem?

Channel 4 News What’ll be the impact of the resignation? It’s quite hard to assess the impact of tonight’s resignation of defence minister Eric Joyce. Will this get buried in all the other political news that’s about or could it damage Mr. Brown who has become so associated with the Afghan strategy. The challenge for Number 10 is that his reasons go to the heart of how the PM is presenting his case. This is from Joyce’s letter: “…As you…

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Will the Tory EPP withdrawal derail Lisbon?

Will the Tory EPP withdrawal derail Lisbon?

What are the mechanics of the next nine months? Ireland’s second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty will take place on 2 October. Assuming it’s passed what happens next could have consequences for the UK election. Three other countries have yet to ratify. In Germany there’s a legal challenge to the Constitutional Court and secondly – and as a result of the ruling from that challenge – the need to amend some domestic legislation. That is currently scheduled to be done…

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