The new series with the emphasis on predicting the outcome

One of the frustrations of trying to predict or bet on the general election outcome is that when a poll is published we are reliant for what’s asked and how it is reported on the media organisation that has commissioned it. Quite often significant detail is not included and it can be days before we have it.

For us the key numbers are the voting intention ones and we are particularly eager to look at regional splits and to try to assess whether the key marginals are performing in a different manner.

Following my hints over the past month I can now confirm that the site will have its own exclusive monthly opinion poll right up to the general election. When the campaign proper starts I’m hoping that we can step up the frequency.

This is being made possible thanks to an arrangement between PB and a major international polling organisation which is seeking to extend its political polling into the UK.

The firm has made a number of key appointments from the UK polling industry and the plan is to launch the PB poll in mid-October after the party conference season.

Initially this will focus on GB voting intentions but we are already drawing plans for surveys of the marginals as well as evolving ways trying to assess the impact of tactical voting.

Our aim is to make the detailed data available as soon as the poll is published here and to time it for a period in the month when there are not many other polls about.

The arrival of the PB poll will mean that there will be six firms carrying out between them a minimum of eight scheduled surveys each month.

This is a great development for the site and for me personally.

Mike Smithson