CON 40%(-1) LAB 24%(nc) LD 21%(+3)

The Tory vote seems to be the most solid

After the spate of YouGov online surveys it’s good to have a poll from a firm that operates in a totally different manner. ComRes, is a phone pollster with past vote weighting but unlike YouGov does filter its data by certainty to vote.

In the past I have had issues with ComRes but adjustments were made to their methodology in June and I’m happy with their approach.

So the big feature of tonight’s poll for the Independent is the Labour share which is still on 24% – the worst current rating of all the pollsters. There’ll be disappointment that the change seen by YouGov is not reflected here.

The Lib Dems will be delighted with the three point boost and the Tories will be happy to retain a share in the 40s and a solid lead.

One interesting feature which I think we’ll see a lot more of in the coming months is that respondents were asked how likely it was that they would change their minds about how they would vote. The proportions of potential changers for each of the main parties were CON 34%: LAB 51%: LD 56%. This suggests that the Tory vote is a lot firmer.

Let’s see if the coming conference season has an impact. Generally the party which has had the most recent conference to a poll being carried out sees an uplift in support. This is why I usually like to wait until mid-October when this has worked its way out of the system.

Mike Smithson