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Month: August 2009

Should you take the 20/1 against PM4PM before 2020?

Should you take the 20/1 against PM4PM before 2020?

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Have you joined the great Mandelson gamble? The news this morning that efforts are being made to find Peter Mandelson a safe Labour seat in County Durham for the general election has set off a big gamble on the political betting markets. Both Ladbrokes and William Hill have issued press release – the latter now making Mandelson 8/1 to be the next Labour leader. The Ladbrokes prices is a more comfortable 16/1. Ladbrokes say that for every pound at the…

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Where have the Labour voters gone?

Where have the Labour voters gone?

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Is it going to be as bad for Labour as 1997 was for the Tories? Reading too much into by-election results is a very dangerous game. There aren’t very many of them and where and when they take place is close to a random process. However, having said all that, there’s one aspect of the recent Norwich North by-election result which could be an important pointer and which hasn’t had much coverage: the scale of the collapse of support for…

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Marginals poll shows big Tory lead

Marginals poll shows big Tory lead

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CONHome But details are scarce and the pollster isn’t registered The first news of this poll of the 30 most marginal seats has come on ConservativeHome and details are very scarce. Firstly although the pollster has carried out at least one political poll in the UK before it is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council which makes me, for one, feel a touch uncomfortable. Secondly the report that we’ve got does not tell is when the…

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Should you be a buyer of “Gordon Brown Days”?

Should you be a buyer of “Gordon Brown Days”?

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Sporting Index Is this where to bet if you think he’ll stay the course? One of my first big wins on a political spread market was on how long Bill Clinton would remain as US president following the Monica Lewinsky affair and the moves to impeach him. The spread was simply on how many weeks his second term would last and this looked uncertain for a period during the impeachment process. As I recall the market in the early summer…

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