Could the UNS have exceptions as big as this?
What if Morley & Outwod saw the same swing?
The video is the famous one of Michael Portillo’s result at the May 1997 general election. The CON>LAB swing was an amazing 17.1% which was way above the uniform national swing and it was by far the most unexpected result of the night. The victim, of course, was a high profile cabinet minister who was being talked of as post-election party leader.
For the thing about the uniform swing is that there can be huge exceptions.
I’ve suggested before that Morley and Outwood, the seat where Ed Balls is standing, might be where the Portillo moment of 2010 takes place. There could be others.
As we have seen when the mood is moving away from a party then it could be vulnerable to disproportionate losses.
I’m on the Tories in Balls’s seat at 3/1. The conditions are there, I believe, for the shock of the night.
Ladbrokes have Labour at 4/11 with the Tories at 2/1.