CON 38 (-1) LAB 21 (-4) LD 19 (nc)

“Others” continue to have big impact on the shares

A new poll from Ipsos-MORI shows Labour sharply down on the last survey from the firm taken the weekend before. The firm itself is quoting changes on a poll before the Euro elections when Labour dropped to 18%.

This is a steep drop in just a week but perhaps reflects how the media was covering Labour in the period after the EU results. Brown’s position was secured and this was dominating the news. Outside election campaigns polling changes can often be explained by the quantity of coverage a party is getting.

The main characteristic is the continued dominance of others – something that was boosted by the EU election campaign.

MORI, as I always note, only include those 100% certain to vote in their headline numbers.

The really interesting numbers will come in October after the party conference season effect has worked its way through and the EU election effect has receded.

Mike Smithson