Can he beat the Tory’s two years and 55 days?

With all the talk of the pressure on Gordon Brown just how long can he carry on? Is for instance his tenure as leader of the Labour party going to be shorter than Iain Duncan Smith – the Tory leader from 2001 to 2003.

Unlike Brown IDS had to fight an election to get the party’s top job yet within a short time it was clear that the party had made a terrible mistake. IDS has got a lot of qualities but he simply did not “cut it” in the leadership role.

Within months the murmurings started and by 2003 it became clear that his position was not sustainable. The only real question was “when” and not “if”.

Everything was geared up for a move on the day of the local elections in May of that year. At 10pm on election there was a shock resignation of a front-bencher but the results for the Tories were nothing like as bad as had been anticipated. In fact the party put on several hundred seats – giving IDS a temporary reprieve

It took until the following October for him to be unseated in a confidence vote and he finally stepped down after two years and 55 days. Brown has only been in the job for one year and 341 days – so still some time to go.

In many ways Gord’s lack of leadership skills are even more startling than IDS’s. It’s becoming increasingly obvious to his colleagues and a large party of his party that he simply does not have what’s required to take on the Tory threat – and if you are an MP in a marginal seat you want a leader who is a winner.

Will Gord’s tenure be any longer IDS’s or are we going to a concerted attempt to oust him in the aftermath of today’s election? It’s rumoured that a number of leading figures could make a move at 10pm – when the polls close.

Mike Smithson