REVISED

CON 39(-4) LAB 26(-4) LD 22 (+4)

What does this say about the expenses expose?

The Times Populus survey for May is just out and shows Labour and the Tories both down four points with the LDs up by the same number.

Like other recent polls there has been an increase in “others” – something that tends to happen ahead of the Euro elections. In its final Westminster voting poll before the 2004 Euro elections Populus reported an others total of 18%.

The numbers would produce a Cameron government with a majority although Cameron’s party would be much happier if they had been in the 40s.

This is the first poll during 2009 where the Tories have not been in the 40s and it’s the best Lib Dem figure from the pollster for some time.

There’ll be a lot of relief in Brown Central that the Tory vote share is down by the same amount as the Labour one. The mood is anti-politician and the main parties are being hit most.

The fieldwork took place from Friday through to last night so all of the poll was carried out after the expenses expose stories broke. It should be noted that none of the sample would have been aware of the Tories who were named in this morning’s papers.

The Times report notes that: “The poll shows very high levels of agreement both that “all the parties are as bad as each other” in abusing the system of expenses and allowances (backed by 86 per cent), and that the way MPs have acted confirms “how self-serving and out of touch most are” (85 per cent).”

At to the view of Gordon Brown 44% believe that his exit would improve Labour’s prospects but 49% disagree. Like all non-voting intention questions those answering would include significant numbers with no or little intention of voting.

Mike Smithson