CON 43 (-1) LAB 26 (-5) LD 21 (+3)

Will the Sunday Telegraph survey give Cameron a boost

A new survey by an ICM associated company for the Sunday Telegraph reports a sharp reverse for Labour after its terrible week. I’ve assumed that the methodology has followed the standard ICM format and my comparisons above are with the last poll from the firm.

This is the second lowest Labour share ever from the polling group and the only consolation for Brown Central is that the beneficiaries are the Lib Dems and not the Tories. Still if this was the outcome of the general elections then David Cameron would be returned with a very substantial majority.

My guess is that when we see the poll detail a key element will have been a big decline in certainty to vote amongst Labour supporters. The big thing with bad publicity is that it takes the heart out of your voters as John Major found in the run-up to the 1997 election.

My recall is that 26% is the lowest share that Major’s Tories got from an ICM poll in that period – though Labour was doing better than the Tories are now.

The worst ever ICM figures for Labour were in the Guardian survey in June 2008 when it was CON 45: LAB 25: LD 20.