CONSERVATIVES 44% (+6)
LABOUR 32% (-1)
LIB DEMS 16% (-3)

But the LDs see a drop to 16%

The long-awaited Guardian ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories up six points to 44%. The move is in line with all the other surveys that we have seen in the past three weeks and is further evidence that Brown Bounce II has come to a dead stop.

Labour will be pleased that their drop was just one point but the real losers are the Lib Dems who see a three point decline to 16%.

This is very serious for Nick Clegg’s party because ICM is generally the pollster that produces the best figures for them. Could it, I wonder, have anything to do with the return of the pro-EU anti-Iraq war, Ken Clarke, to the Tory front bench?

One of their great strengths, Vince Cable, could be eclipsed by the former Chancellor who will start to get featured a lot in the media.

As I always say the Lib Dems can generally ignore the other pollsters but this must be worrying. The last time they were down at 16% from ICM was in August.

The confirmation from the fifth pollster that covers UK opinion that the Tories are back in the mid-40s will further reinforce the view that not only is Cameron heading for victory at the election but we might be talking about a landslide.

I’m not convinced of that and Labour will be delighted that it’s Clegg’s party that has taken almost all of the hit and not them.

The 44% share is exactly the same as that which Tony Blair’s Labour got in the landslide win in 1997.