CONSERVATIVES 43% (+11)
LABOUR 37% (-2)
LIB DEMS 13% (-9)

Why’s the swing smaller in the capital?

A new poll of London voters from Yougov for the Evening Standard suggest that there’s been a big swing to the Tories since the general election. The shares are above with changes on what happened in May 2005.

The paper suggests that Labour would lose 11 of its 44 seats in the city and the report is presented as very bad news for the party – but is it?

For the swing to the Tories represented in the poll is 6.5% – that compares with a national swing of 8% that we saw yesterday in the January YouGov poll for the Sunday Times

You can’t read too much into that because of standard margins of error but it does appear that the party is doing better in London.

The shares are very bad for the Lib Dems and if this was an ICM survey there would be a lot for them to be concerned about. But it isn’t – YouGov’s approach and mathematics is not Lib Dem friendly but with the Tories soaring at this rate then Clegg’s party would see a number of seat losses – particularly to the Tories.

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