Will you be the PB Political Forecaster of 2009?
Back by popular request to sharpen your forecasting skills
On Christmas Day 2009 who will be…? (50 points for each correct answer)
1. Prime Minister
2. Leader of the Opposition
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats
4. The Speaker of the House of Commons
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer
In 2009…
(Predictions for questions 6-10 should be made to the nearest percentage point)
6. What will be the YES percentage in the Irish EU referendum?
7. What will be the Conservative nationwide (ie UK) poll share in the June Euro-elections?
8. What will be the Labour nationwide poll share in the June Euro-elections?
9. What will be the Lib Dem nationwide poll share in the June Euro-elections?
10. What will be the UKIP nationwide poll share in the June Euro-elections?
(Scoring for Q6-10: 50 points for correct answers declining by five points for each percent that you are out until zero)
11. Who will be Prime Minister of Israel as a result of the forthcoming Knesset elections? (50 points for a correct answer)
12. What will the level of the FTSE 100 be to the nearest full point at the close of business on 30th June? (100 points for correct answers declining by one point per point out until zero)
For how many days during 2009 will…? (100 points for correct answers declining by one point per day out until zero. For things you think are not going to change enter 365 days)
13. Gordon Brown serve as Prime Minister
14. David Cameron serve as Conservative Leader
15. Nick Clegg serve as Lib Dem Leader
16. Jacqui Smith serve as Home Secretary
17. The “GreenGate” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged
18. Bank Rate as announced by the Bank of England be less than 2%
19. How many days into 2009 will the UK General Election fall? – eg enter 155 if you think it will be 4th June. Enter 365 if you think there will not be a general election in 2009.
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report on the following indicators during 2009? (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
20. Labour’s highest percentage
21. Labour’s lowest percentage
22. The Conservatives’ highest percentage
23. The Conservatives’ lowest percentage
24. The Lib Dems’ highest percentage
25. The Lib Dems’ lowest percentage
26. The Conservatives’ highest lead
27. The Conservatives’ lowest lead (or Labour’s highest lead)
Seat losses and gains in the June 2009 elections (100 points for each correct answer reducing by one point for each seat out until zero is reached)
28. Net Labour seats won/lost in the local elections
29. Net Conservative seats won/lost in the local elections
30. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost in the local elections
As before, the competition will be in spreadsheet format, to speed up collating and marking (there were almost 2500 items to mark in the 2008 competition).
The spreadsheet can be downloaded below.
PB 2009 Competition
Do not post your answers in the thread below – please email your completed spreadsheet to:
If you don’t have access to Excel, these links may be helpful:
As always on PB, the competition organisers’ decision is final and no correspondence will be entered into.
Please do not enter predictions in the thread as they will not count
Mike Smithson
Double Carpet