But will YouGov be overstating UKIP again?

With the next EU elections due to take place at the start of June there’s a first poll, from YouGov in the Sunday Telegraph, which suggested that both Labour and the Tories are going to do better then they did last time.

These are the figures with comparison on the 2004 EU election result:- CON 35 (+8): LAB 29 (+6): LD 15 (NC): UKIP 7 (-9): GRN 5 (-1): BNP 4: SNP/PC 4

Polling for what’s likely to be a low-turnout election this far out is always going to be challenging and it will be recalled that in 2004 YouGov startled everybody by predicting a massive share for UKIP which did not quite materialise. The pollster had them on 21% – they got 16% which did, however, put them in third place.

In this latest survey YouGov found that one in ten of those saying they would vote Tory in a general election would switch to UKIP for the Euros.

An issue for Labour (Glenrothes being a notable exception) is that they tend to find it much harder to get out their vote in elections where the government of the UK is not at stake than the Tories. So my guess is that the 29% projected share here is an over-statement. There’s also the question of the BNP which has been doing well recently in local elections. It could be that the YouGov 4% will be an understatement.