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Year: 2008

Will the Mayoral result resolve the YouGov row?

Will the Mayoral result resolve the YouGov row?

Punters still reluctant to bet on a Cameron majority Ever since Ken Livingstone sought to discredit the YouGov polling organisation after the firm’s February poll put him behind for the first time the result of next Thursday election is going to be about more than who runs London. It has become, also, about the confidence we can have in surveys from the online pollster and the conventional firms. This has become more the case this morning as the political world…

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The Question Time Mayoral debate

The Question Time Mayoral debate

Could this be a game-changing event? The big debate in the London Mayoral campaign starts at 10.35pm. Is this going to change the election? How will it affect the betting? The latest prices are here Mike Smithson

YouGov poll has Labour down to 26%

YouGov poll has Labour down to 26%

Cameron’s Tories take an 18% lead The April YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph is just out and reports another decline in Labour’s share to just 26%. the figures are with comparisons on the last survey from the pollster two weeks ago CON 44% (nc): LAB 26% (-2): LD 17% (nc) The paper says that this is the biggest lead by the Tories since 1987. It comes after a week which saw the big reversal in Labour ICM ratings when…

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Is Ken trying to do a Hillary?

Is Ken trying to do a Hillary?

Why should he be so candid about the prospect of defeat? Above is the front page of tonight’s Evening Standard which seems to break all the rules of elections. Candidates are “never” supposed to contemplate the prospect of defeat because it’s thought it will demoralise their own supporters. So why is Ken saying this – assuming the quotes in the paper are accurate? It raises a whole pile of questions. Has he seen private polling which suggests that next Thursday…

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Could Al Gore still be in with a shout?

Could Al Gore still be in with a shout?

Like Bartlett – what about a Nobel Prize winning President? Every so often in this pro-longed battle for the Democratic nomination someone pops and puts forward the name of Al Gore – seen in the picture giving his acceptance speech after being awarded the Nobel Prize. The argument is usually the same – the bitter contest between Obama and Clinton has so embittered large parts of the party that the only way of creating the unity required to compete in…

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Should you bet on the poll that’s worst for Ken?

Should you bet on the poll that’s worst for Ken?

Will the “golden rule” apply again next week? So far four polling firms have produced surveys on the 2008 London Mayoral race and it looks as though each will be doing at least one further survey for publication in the next week. What’s great about this contest is that it’s about aggregate vote totals across London and we’ll be able to compare directly the performance of each polling firm with the actual result. In this election there is no hiding…

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