What do we think of “The Fink’s” thesis? There’s an interesting piece on Times Online today by Daniel Finkelstein who argues that in every general election over the past 80 years the voters have chosen the party that was most right to run the country at the time. He writes: “The proposition is that in every contest in these last 80 years the party that was more fit to govern has been victorious. Sometimes both of the main offerings were…
Why is Bill due to speak just before just before the V-P nominee? An intriguing piece of news overnight is the report that Bill Clinton, whose relationship with Obama has never been easy, has been given the slot at the Denver convention just before the V-P nominee. This can only mean, surely, that the chosen person is totally acceptable to the Clintons and, indeed, might be a major part of the healing between the two factions that has become so…
With Barack Obama expected to announce at any time the name of his running mate every little bit of detail is being scrutinised to the nth degree to try to guess who the chosen one will be. One person who had been highly tipped was the former Governor of Virginia and, incidentally, was alongside Obama one of my two long-shot tips for the President in 2005 and 2006. Last night the announcement that he would be speaking on the Tuesday…
Is there any chance of holding on in the seat next door? Above are some recycling bins in Glenrothes – the Fife constituency next to Gordon’s where Labour’s next by-election nightmare looks set to take place. This follows the death, reported earlier in the day, of John MacDougall who had been an MP for seven years. With Labour getting 51.9% of the vote last time to the SNP’s 23.4% the election would in normal times be a Labour hold on…
Is the idea of swingback just an anti-Tory fantasy? Yesterday on one of the threads I got into an argument with a poster who asserted “…But no-one seriously expects the actual election to mirror the current polls.” Well this flies in the face of what has happened at the last three general elections. I know we have had this debate before but I thought it might be useful to set out the polling at exactly the same point – 20…
How could Barack choose someone with this record? With the announcement of Obama’s V-P choice said to be getting quite imminent big question marks have been raised over the current strong favourite – Evan Bayh – the telegenic senator from Indiana who was a strong Clinton backer. As the New York Times puts it: “Bayh’s support of authorizing force in Iraq stands in sharp contrast to Mr. Obama’s oft-stated view that he showed the good judgment to oppose the conflict…
What we need to know is how people will vote? As someone who uses polls to try to predict elections and win bets I’ve always been very wary of polling questions which ask respondents for their opinion – not for an indication of what they would do in an election. This based on the last two general elections only about 60% of people actually vote so the results you get from the opinion questions are distorted by the views of…
Does the government need to do less – but do it better? A powerful critique by former minister, Nick Raynsford, in the latest New Statesman of the efforts by the Brown government to win back public support has been picked up by many of the papers this morning. Inevitably this is being seen as part of the moves to back the leadership ambitions of David Miliband. Ranysford writes: “…There is no single ‘Get Out of Jail’ card, and it is…