New poll suggests that Cameron is heading for a 100 seat majority The above graphic, reproduced from the seat calculator on Anthony Wells’s UK Polling Report site, shows what happens when you key in the projected vote shares from today’s March YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph. The survey paints the same broad picture that we’ve seen in all the post-budget polls – very bad news for Labour. When nearly a fortnight ago poll by the firm for the Sunday…
Could this be a serious proposition? The author of the classic White House Race Novel, Primary Colours, Joe Klein, has floated the idea of a Gore-Obama ticket in the latest edition of Time magazine. This is from Klein’s piece: “..But let’s play a little. Let’s say the elders of the Democratic Party decide, when the primaries end, that neither Obama nor Clinton is viable. Let’s also assume—and this may be a real stretch—that such elders are strong and smart enough…
Should your betting be following the Prime Minister? With just five weeks to go before five million Londoners vote on their Mayor there’s a report in the Times this morning that is hardly going to improve relations between the government and City Hall. Under the heading “Gordon Brown deserts Ken Livingstone..” the paper reports that the PM has “… all but written off Ken Livingstone’s chances of winning the London mayoral election, according to close allies.” Brown, it is noted…
Is PaddyPower’s 4/1 a good value bet? This PaddyPower market on the next scandal to hit one of the presidential contenders has been around for some time but we have not focused on it before. Although quite fun I don’t like this sort of wager because of the lack of definition in working out what will trigger settlement. But looking at the list we do know of one thing that will be happening very soon – the release of the…
Did you get a bet on in the new PMQs market? With the two tabloids that are reckoned to have the most impact on public opinion, the Mail and the Sun, leading on the legal bid by the Speaker to stop MPs expenses being made public could David Cameron be considering this as his first line of attack at PMQs this lunchtime? The Tory leader has never been known to be shy when it comes to issues raised by the…
The story of Hillary’s version of a visit to Bosnia in 1996 and how she has been describing it has developed into the big story in the nomination race over the past couple of days. The CBS report above sums it up well interspersing footage taken at the time with what she said last week. The reference to Bosnia arose as part of her case that she has experience. For the moment this moves the story on from Obama’s Pastor…
Where’s the value in Ladbroke’s new market? Ladbrokes are sticking with the innovative new betting market on what Cameron’s first question will be at PMQs tomorrow. Reproduced above are the latest prices. My favourites are something to do with the London Mayoral election or a follow-up to Brown U-turn on the embryo bill free vote. Mike Smithson
Who’s won the lion’s share of Pennsylvania’s newly registered Dems? Since New Year’s Day 218,000 residents of Pennsylvania have filled in forms like the one reproduced above so that they will be eligible to vote in the crucial primary that takes place there on April 22nd. More than 120,000 of them are new voters while a further 86,000 others were existing voters who filled in Question 9 to register as Democrats. In addition 12,000 switched to become registered Republicans. All…