Could this make it “game on” for a 2009 election

The long-awaited Guardian ICM poll for December is just out and has the Tories down from 45% in November to 37% which must put more force behind the early election band-wagon

But, as predicted, the Lib Dems are up to 19% and Labour’s share, whilst still up 3, is still down at 33% – which is the lowest of all the current polling.

Critically these numbers put the Tories below the 40% mark which most pundits regarded as the key level to be certain to come out with most seats even if not an overall majority.

Putting these numbers into the UK Polling Report seat calculator and we get CON 279: LAB 295: LD 47 which would leave Labour thirty seats short of an overall majority but, critically, ahead of the Tories.

There’s little doubt that this will push the spread market towards Labour. I’ve just been onto IG Index and have sold the Tories at 338 seats to add to my previous sell position at 344.

As regular readers will know ICM is the pollster I rate the most and I take this poll very seriously. The firm generally produces the highest Lib Dem share which is probably the reason why the gap between the parties is greater with the ICM than the other pollsters.

We still have two or three more surveys to come before Christmas – I’m expecting a MORI poll in the next day or so, another survey by ComRes and YouGov.

Election date betting.

Month of the election betting.

General election – most seats betting.

Mike Smithson