CONSERVATIVES 41% (+1)
LABOUR 35% (-1)
LIB DEMS 15% (+1)

Will this bring relief to Team Cameron

The second poll of the night, by YouGov for the Sunday Times, adds further to the confused picture of what is happening to public opinion about the general election.

For the online pollster is reporting a two point increase in the Tory lead with Cameron’s party still above 40%. It also, contrary to ComRes, has the Lib Dems advancing even if only by a point.

Whatever it would be a brave man who would suggest that Labour should call a general election on these polling figures.

There can be little doubt that Labour is doing substantially better than during the trough in June and July. The question is how much better?

The points that I quoted from Anthony Wells on the the previous thread are serious and until we have clarified this with ComRes it is hard to come to a conclusion about their survey for the IoS. For there does seem to have been a massive change in the firm’s past vote weighting formula in the past week and a half.

The end November poll appeared. and I might be wrong in this, to have been based on past vote shares of CON 32.3% and LAB 39.5%. The weightings in poll that we have had this evening look as though they have been calculated on CON 29.6% and LAB 43.6% – which, if this is indeed the case, is a massive change. In May 2005, of course, it was CON 33.2% to LAB 36.2%.

I can’t wait for ICM on Monday evening.

Mike Smithson