CONSERVATIVES 39% (-2)
LABOUR 35% (nc)
LIB DEMS 17& (+1)

Tory lead at lowest level since April

Further confirmation that Labour and the Tories are getting closer comes in the latest Populus Poll bfor the Times tomorrow. The figures above show Labour steady but the Tories down a touch and the Lib Dems up.

This will be a massive disappointment for the Tories who had really been hoping for something better – given the surveys by ICM and MORI just over a week ago that had double digit leads.

Populus is a telephone pollster that uses past vote weighting in a similar manner to ICM. Quite often the firm’s field-work is carried out by ICM and it’s possible that the same interviewing team that did the ICM Tory 15% lead survey did this one as well.

The Lib Dems will be pleased to see that they are making progress – something that has happened in the recent ComRes and MORI surveys as well.

These vote shares put us into hung parliament territory again and will probable provide more ammunition for the hawks with Brown Central who are calling for a 2009 election.

My guess is that the spread markets will move quite sharply to Labour. There had been little reaction to ComRes but these latest numbers are in the same broad territory.

As ever I look forward to examining the detailed data which should be out tomorrow.

Mike Smithson