Could there still be a shock?

The chart above shows the best Labour betting price expressed as an implied probability over the past 24 hours and as can be seen there has been a steady decline.

Generally on by-election days the party campaign HQs start to get a feel in the early evening of how well they are doing and this often is reflected in the betting. Alas that has yet to happen though it does seem to have bottomed out.

Mike Smithson