But for Labour and the Tories it’s no change

The Guardian‘s October survey from ICM is now out and for Labour and the Tories there is no change on the last poll from the firm just after the Conservative conference.

The big winner is Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems who have been battered in recent surveys from other pollsters but not from ICM. The 21% share is not much down on the general election and is the best from the firm since June.

Putting the shares into the Anthony Wells seat calculator and we get CON 344: LAB 232: LD 45 commons seats. This is almost exactly in line with current spread-betting prices.

Amongst the non-voting intention questions 13% said they would be more likely to vote Labour as a result of the government’s response against 27% who say less. These are very similar numbers to those we got yesterday in the ICM News of the World survey and I just wonder if there has been some cross-over.

Overall though the Tory lead is nothing like on the scale that we saw in the summer and that will bring comfort to Team Brown. But they would, surely, have been expecting something a bit better – given the international acclaim that he has been getting.

As to the betting I cannot see much change.

Mike Smithson