Have the UK betting markets got this one right?

We are just over three and a half weeks away from the big day but punters on UK betting markets seemed to have made their mind up – Senator Barack Obama is on course to be the 44th President of the United States.

The chart shows the McCain price change, expressed as an implied probability, over the past month when at one stage he was heading towards evens. Now you can get nearly 5/1.

The time is ticking away and there is only one big public occasion left – the final presidential debate. Can McCain do what he’s been unable to to in the first two and produce a game-changer? This is hard to see but so much is at stake that the 72 year old and his party will throw caution to the wall to stop the Democratic party ending their eight year tenure at the White House.

What’s been happening in recent days has been polling from what were seen as solid Republican states which might end up voting for Obama.

A big event that could cause damage is the report on “troopergate” – the affair that could damage Sarah Palin. It’s hard to say what impact this will have and if it is less damaging them people expect then watch the McCain campaign claim a victory.

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Mike Smithson