What do we make of no conference bounce?

…..meanwhile, away from the news from Washington, the September ComRes poll for the Independent is just out on the firm’s web-site and the figures are featured above.

When it is published in the paper in morning it will show comparisons with the newspaper’s August survey – not the last poll from the firm that was completed just before Labour’s gathering in Manchester. That’s a pity because the only comparisons that really matter are with the previous survey from the same firm.

Fieldwork for the last poll took place immediately after the Lib Dem conference and just before the start of the Labour’s gathering in Manchester. That showed a big boost for the Lib Dems mostly at the expense of the Tories.

Well tonight’s new poll sees most of that Lib Dem increase disappearing with both the Tories and Labour up two points each.

Given the massive and mostly favourable coverage that Labour, and Brown, got last week I think tonight’s numbers will come as a disappointment. Fieldwork started on Friday and continued until Sunday.

All this adds to what I’ve been saying for weeks – the conference season produces distortions and we need to wait until end October before getting a more stable picture.

Mike Smithson