Would the outcome be the same today?

If you’ve got a quarter of an hour to spare check out this Frank Luntz focus group that was produced for Newnight in September 2006 – nine months before Blair stepped down. The picture shows the response of the group when they were asked if Gordon Brown should lead Labour into the next election. Just one person responded.

Click the panel to watch the programme.

At the time it was so controversial that Team Brown went into over-drive to rubbish Luntz and the outcome. For the winner, from a panel of Labour supporters and leaners, was John Reid. The others who were assessed as well as Brown were Miliband, Johnson, Millburn and McDonnell.

There’ve been suggestions that another Luntz focus group is in the offing. My understanding is that there’s a September 2008 version due to appear tonight. Will it come to the same conclusion?

My guess is that it will. Almost everything that was said about Brown two years ago has turned out to be pretty accurate.

I’ve got two bets – at 50/1 and 20/1 – that Reid will be the next leader and I’m starting to think I might just have a chance of winning the bets. He’s now an outsider and hasn’t been tainted by the Brown premiership – and boy he really hates Gordon.

If he was leader and PM I think life would be a lot less easy for David Cameron.

Mike Smithson