Glasgow doesn’t seem to have had too much impact

The latest Populus Poll for the Times is just out and shows that the Labour deficit has nudged up just two points even though the fieldwork took place during a weekend when the big story was the party leadership and the reaction the the by-election.

In a way it does not add much to that we already know – Labour continue to languish in the 20s with the Tories touching the mid-40s. All of this adds up to a possible Tory landslide should the nation vote in these proportions in a general election.

The Populus poll at the start of the month had the margin at just 13% which was the lowest of any of the pollsters.

On what would happen if Labour did ditch Brown Peter Riddell writes: “Ministers plotting to remove Gordon Brown receive a warning that just a half (52 per cent) believe it would improve the party’s fortunes. This is roughly the same as the 53 per cent when the question was last asked in May despite increased speculation about his future. But there has been a three point rise to 44 per cent in the number saying replacing him with “a younger, fresher, more charismatic alternative” would not make Labour more likely to win.”

So there we are – what will probably be the last poll for several weeks.

Correction: The original graphic had some wrong figures. This has now been amended.

Mike Smithson