Could the worst now be over for Labour?

The July poll from ICM for the Guardian is out this evening and shows a small recovery for Labour. After June’s 20% deficit the July poll has it down to just 15%. It says something about the current political environment that this should be seen as good news for Brown and his ministers.

Even so such a poll, if repeated in a general election, would according to the Anthony Wells calculator, produce a Conservative majority of 102 seat with Labour being reduced to 209 MPs.

This goes in the opposite direction to the latest ComRes poll at the weekend which had Labour at its lowest ever level from the pollster.

Whatever the overall picture is broadly the same – Labour are languishing in the 20s while the Tories continue to be in the 40s.

We now go into a quiet period and we really won’t get a full feel for the way things are until after the conference season at the end of October.

Mike Smithson