Nearly three electors in five say they would vote for him

A new Ipsos-MORI telephone poll for the Independent this morning has what seem to be contradictory conclusions over David Davis’s move last week.

On the one hand the national survey found that respondents would give him strong support if they were able to vote in the forthcoming by-election. But on the issue of whether he was right or not there’s a different conclusion.

In the poll carried out from Friday to Sunday respondents were asked how they would vote if there if they lived in Davis’s Haltemprice and Howden constituency. A total of 35% said they would support Davis against 23% who said they would not. The balance was made of “wouldn’t votes” or “don’t knows”.

So of those expressing an opinion on voting Davis was ahead by 57% to 33%.

On a second question of whether he was right to resign his seat the split was 39% in favour to 48% against – but this includes the views of those who say they wouldn’t vote.

This is a strange poll in that the main question, what would you do if you could vote in Davis’s seat, is completely hypothetical. It is also, I think, the first political poll to be published by Ipsos-MORI since their methodology review was initiated after the London Mayoral election. I am looking forward to seeing the detailed data.

Mike Smithson