The Evening Standard’s final YouGov poll of the mayoral campaign has just been published and the figures are exactly as was reported here at 9.27 pm last night.

On first preferences it is BORIS 43%: KEN 36%: PADDICK 13%. After the redistribution of second preferences it splits BORIS 53%: KEN 47%

From the poll detail it appears that there has been a hardening up of support by party allegiance. Two days ago 87% of those who have told the firm that they are Tories said they were backing Boris – today’s numbers have that at 94%. It’s the same with Labour supporters where there had been an increase in support for Ken. He’s now getting 76% of those who have identified themselves to the firm as Labour backers.

The detailed data shows that Boris is retaining the support of 84% of those who have told the firm that they are Tories while Ken is now getting 63% of those who have identified themselves to the firm as Labour backers. The Lib Dem “identifiers” split almost three ways between the leading candidates.

The poll data also shows that Boris is picking up just about two three voters from the 55+ age group for every one two to Ken. This is broadly in line with most of the recent polls and is significant because more than any other segment of the population older people turn out to vote.

My apologies for getting this wrong in the first version of the article – I was reading the lines for Westminster voting intention and not today’s ballot.

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Mike Smithson