Making sense of the different predictions Firstly a declaration of financial interest: As I reported on Wednesday I was underwhelmed by Boris in the Tuesday Newsnight debate and closed almost all my positions on him for the London mayoralty by 9am of that day, pocketed nearly £1000 from my spread bets, booked a holiday, and took out all the stake money I had on him with Betfair. The balance of my trading profits on the latter is split between Boris…
…. Who do you believe? YouGov, ICM or MORI? Ladbrokes have just added to the range of betting options on the London Mayoral race with markets on the vote shares that both Ken and Boris manage to end up with. Given the very different evidence from the opinion polls you might as well be betting on YouGov vs ICM/MORI. The former is showing the Tory with a 13% lead while the latter have a completely different picture. Remember this is…
Why are the Hillary campaign obituaries already starting? With the five week gap in the White House race primary calendar we haven’t spent much time recently looking at what’s happening with the Clinton-Obama contest. This will change in the next few days as the spotlight focuses on the crucial Pennsylvania contest on April 22nd. Here Hillary has to win and win big if she is to have any hope of staying in contention. Meanwhile there’s a new trend in parts…
The data shows that there were only four votes in it The full detail from today’s MORI London poll is just out and the top-line split is much tighter than the 51%-49% Ken-Boris headline figures that have been reported. Look at the table above and you will see how close it is. Taking those “certain to vote” – the pollster’s standard filter, of first and qualifying second preferences and you find 207 for Ken against 203 for Boris. This works…
A trade union sponsored poll out this morning from Ipsos-MORI on the London Mayoralty put Ken Livingstone in the lead and add further to the polling confusion over the race. Amongst first choices the split amongst those “certain to vote” is JOHNSON 40%: LIVINGSTONE 41%: PADDICK 10% 14%. This is very similar to a survey by the pollster in February which had been commissioned by the Labour party. If you include all those naming a choice Ken had an 8%…
So is it a workable Tory majority or a hung parliament? Since the budget there have been eight general election opinion polls – three from ICM, two from YouGov and one each from the other pollsters that do regular monthly surveys – MORI, ComRes and Populus. What’s interesting is that the big Tory surge that’s both affecting the betting markets and the political climate generally has been based primarily on two pollsters, ICM and YouGov – the firms, incidentally, that…
Will tonight’s Newsnight debate change anything? The first televised debate in the London Mayoral contest takes place on Newsnight on BBC2 later tonight and could be a significant occasion – especially as the questions will be put by Jeremy Paxman. The veteran Newsnight host has become something of a legend and all three of the contenders can expect a tough time from him and their fellow candidates. This could be quite an occasion and there’s always the possibility that something…
Can it do for Stephan what 18 Doughty Street didn’t? Stephan Shakespeare, the former campaign manager for Jeffrey Archer, who went on to found YouGov has a launched a new venture this week, PoliticsHome.com. It’s a website totally devoted to politics and brings together links, blogs, and videos in a form that, in Stephan’s words, will make it “the “Bloomberg of politics†covering political power as seriously as Bloomberg did financial clout.” There’s a lot of money going into the…