Will this be a by election nightmare for Cameron? It is always sad that when a sitting MP dies the first thoughts of the political classes are on the up-coming by election – and I am sure that such a hardy campaigner as Gwyneth Dunwoody was the same. She was 77 when she died yesterday and holds the distinction of being the longest ever serving female MP. As her Wikipedia biography records she was first elected to the commons for…
Will his latest figures really hurt Ken? One interesting aspect of the London mayoral race that has been raised by Sky’s Adam Boulton is the proportion of adults who have not registered to vote in parts of London. He noted: “I’m told that when official figures are published next week by London Elects, the quango running the election, they will reveal that over two million Londoners have not registered to vote on May 1. That still leaves around five million…
How’s the encounter in seven weeks going to affect the race? The big news in the Obama-Hillary battle overnight was the first debate the two of them have taken part in for getting on for two months – and a lot has happened since then. As many commentators observed Obama went into the session as almost the presumed nominee and Hillary’s task, as well as the moderators, was to test and probe the Illinois senator’s stance and question whether he…
Is five seats the most that Cameron can hope for? There has been much discussion on whether regional swings may provide a hidden bonus for the Tories at the next election. In particular, so the logic goes, the Tories are underperforming in Scotland, so they must be doing above average in England (and/or Wales.) True enough, but how can we measure the differences, and calibrate any possible benefit? In truth we can’t, for the simple fact that regional poll breakdowns…
Is the trend with MORI really quite positive for him? After taking my profits in the mayoral betting last week the odds following last night’s debate have shifted enough for me to start risking some cash again. A price of 4/6, which has been available on Betfair, looks a fair value bet especially after reviewing the detail of the latest polling particularly from MORI. The firm has had three published surveys on the race and produces, effectively, four sets of…
My best bet is Andy Burnham With reports this afternoon that “backbenchers are giving the Prime Minster until May 2009 to improve or stand down” the question arises as to which Labour figure would follow him into the hot seat whenever that occurs. One thing’s for certain – there will be no coronations next time. Brown’s successor will have to fight it out in a competitive election in much the same way as the other parties go about it. So…
…or do the voters not really care? As regular visitors to the site will know one of my favourite polling tables each month is the response to the Ipsos-MORI “What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)” question. There are no prompts and the pollster has been asking it in the same way for more than thirty years. There are two questions – in the first respondents are asked to name THE most important issue…
Could the GOP be repeating the mistake of 1996? Anybody thinking of betting on John McCain for the White House should take a look at one or two articles recently that have started to draw parallels between his presidential bid and the last time the Republicans chose a candidate in his early 70s – Bob Dole. Like McCain Bob Dole is a war hero having won two purple hearts and one bronze star. Only a few weeks before the German…