Cameron’s Tories take an 18% lead

The April YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph is just out and reports another decline in Labour’s share to just 26%. the figures are with comparisons on the last survey from the pollster two weeks ago CON 44% (nc): LAB 26% (-2): LD 17% (nc)

The paper says that this is the biggest lead by the Tories since 1987. It comes after a week which saw the big reversal in Labour ICM ratings when the Guardian monthly survey reported just a 5% lead.

As I have argued here repeatedly here much of the change in opinion polls is driven by media coverage. In the days leading up to last weekend, when the ICM fieldwork was taking place, the opposition was hardly in the news and the political headlines were largely taken up with Gordon Brown’s visit to the US.

This week, of course, we have had the threat of the tax rebellion and a lot of focus on the Tories. Cameron has appeared a lot in the media which appears to be a big driver.

The big issue is what does this say about next Thursday local elections and the big battle in London. Can Labour in the capital duck out of the national trend? Or is this just YouGov – the objective of much left wing criticism at the moment.

But remember Smithson’s rule: as I always say when there is a sensational polling movement “A rogue poll is one where you do not agree with the numbers.”

Mike Smithson