Did Cameron benefit from the Auschwitz row exposure?

A new poll by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent shows a three point move back to the Tories since last month. The shares are CON 41% (+3): LAB 30% (nc): LD 17% (nc)

If the pollster was following its normal pattern then the fieldwork would have taken place from Friday until Sunday when one of the big political stories was the row of David Cameron’s Auschwitz trip press release.

My theory, as regular visitors will know, is that the Tories do better in polls if their leader is in the news at the start of the fieldwork period irrespective of whether it is positive or negative coverage.

The survey follows other polls last week which showed that the Tory lead was falling and the shares of 41% equals the highest ever level recorded by the pollster.

After last week’s polls which seemed to suggest that Labour was coming out of the Northern Rock crisis unscathed this new survey will come as a blow.

One factor which probably hurts Labour with the firm is the way the turn-out is calculated. ICM filters so it only includes those saying 7/10 or more and they are all given the same value. ComRes filters out those below 5/10 but then weights responses in line with the expressed certainty. YouGov does not filter or weight on the certainty to vote.

So the extraordinary diverse range of polling results at the moment continues.

Mike Smithson