First post-grammar school phone poll sees TMay’s ratings slip 4% & CON lead down 5%

First post-grammar school phone poll sees TMay’s ratings slip 4% & CON lead down 5%

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The new PM’s honeymoon appears to be drawing to a close

One of the dangers of all polling analysis is to confuse correlation with causation. It is easy to attribute polling changes to the last big political development or policy change so I’m not saying that Mrs. May’s decision to reverse her party’s policy on selective schooling is the reason for today’s numbers.

But in broader terms the way the policy came out made her government look less sure-footed than it has been and also opened up some public splits within her party notably Nicky Morgan the sacked Education Secretary. It also appeared to have left Morgan’s successor, Justine Greening, floundering and, of course, pulling out of Question Time at the last minute last night.

Being PM is a totally different proposition that her last job as Home Secretary and she has to be careful when policy is being originated at Number 10 rather than in the relevant department.

It was, of course, inevitable that her initial ratings were going to fade with time and clearly she wanted to stamp her authority on the government with a new policy direction of her own.

The other set of interesting figures in the poll are the Like/Dislike ratings.

Mike Smithson


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