The task for Corbyn’s LAB on May 5th: Match previous opposition leaders in non general election years
Kinnock 1984 Net gains LAB in locals
Kinnock 1985 Net gains LAB in locals
Kinnock 1986 Net gains LAB in locals
Kinnock 1988 Net gains LAB in locals
Kinnock 1989 Net gains LAB in locals
Kinnock 1990 Net gains LAB in locals
Kinnock 1991 Net gains LAB in locals
Smith 1993 Net gains LAB in locals
Smith 1994 Net gains LAB in locals
Blair 1995 Net gains LAB in locals
Blair 1996 Net gains LAB in locals
Hague 1998 Net gains CON in locals
Hague 1999 Net gains CON in locals
Hague 2000 Net gains CON in locals
Duncan Smith 2002 Net gains CON in locals
Duncan Smith 2003 Net gains CON in locals
Howard 2004 Net gains CON in locals
Cameron 2006 Net gains CON in locals
Cameron 2007 Net gains CON in locals
Cameron 2008 Net gains CON in locals
Cameron 2009 Net gains CON in locals
Miliband 2011 Net gains LAB in locals
Miliband 2012 Net gains LAB in locals
Miliband 2013 Net gains LAB in locals
Miliband 2014 Net gains LAB in locals
Corbyn 2016 ????
We are just two months away from the May 5th set of elections which looks set to be a good test for the parties with new leaders- LAB and the LDs.
As well as the London Mayoral election, Holyrood and the Welsh Assembly there are police commissioner elections throughout England and, of course, the usual round of local elections. It is the latter which should give us an indication of party popularity and activist morale.
A key indicator for Labour is whether they achieve net council seat gains. As the table at the top shows the main opposition party has made net gains in every set of locals in non-general election years since the Falklands war in 1982.
So the challenge facing Mr. Corbyn is at the very minimum to maintain the record and come away with net gains.
This could be quite hard because many of the seats being contested were last fought in 2012 weeks after Osborne’s “Omnishambles” budget when Labour was riding high.
Corbyn needs a good May 5th.