New YouGov/C4 Scottish points to big tactical switch by CON/LAB/LD voters to stop SNP http://t.co/XCKQumcXyF

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2015

YouGov/C4 Scottish polling finds 31% of LAB voters & 39% of LDs ready to switch to CON if they thought that would stop SNP in their seat

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2015

YouGov/C4 Scottish polling finds 53% of Tories & 36% of LAB voters ready to switch to LD if they thought that would stop SNP in their seat

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2015

YouGov/C4 Scottish polling finds 44% of Tories & 50% of LDs ready to switch to LAB if they thought that would stop SNP in their seat

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— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2015

I find some of the above numbers quite startling and a huge reminder of the massive political divide that exists now in Scotland. That such large proportion of voters indicate that they could make such a tactical switch is totally unprecedented.

The critical thing here is how the local tactical situation is perceived and whether the party campaigns can get that message across. This is the question that the sample was asked for each of the unionist parties.

“Imagine that in your constituency at the general election only Labour and the Scottish National Party had a realistic chance of winning. How would you then vote?”

In a post on the C4 website Gary Gibbon suggests that such action could lead to LAB securing 13 seats rather than the 4 that the latest poll points to; the LDs would hold onto 3 rather than 1 and the Tories would retain their single Scottish seat.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB