Nearly 70% didn’t vote Blue in 2010

The Telegraph is leading on a big interview it has with Cameron during which the CON leader made a special appeal to UKIP voters. The report notes:-

“In an interview with The Telegraph, the Prime Minister insisted that he has heard the message of frustrated Tory voters “loud and clear” but is now appealing to them to help him “avert the danger of a Labour government”.With one month until the polls open, Mr Cameron made his most emotional appeal to people who have flirted with supporting Ukip and said: “Now please, come on, let’s get together and take the country forward.”

Only problem is that it appears to be based on a well established misconception – that somehow the vast bulk of current UKIP supporters are “just Tories on holiday”

Certainly, as the chart above from the aggregates of Ashcroft LAB-CON marginals polling shows, the biggest slice of UKIP support is not coming from those who votes for any of the main parties last time. Ex-Tories voters in these key marginals account for less than a third of the UKIP contingent.

The figures shown in the chart are those after the standard Ashcroft squeeze question when he asks those sampled to think specifically of their own constituency and the candidates who might be standing. This trims a couple of points off the UKIP share.

Of course if say a third of that third could be persuaded to switch that would make a difference but not as big a difference as is widely supposed.

The same polling aggregate based on a 7k sample found 25% saying that if they had to choose they’d prefer a LAB government to 32% saying a CON one.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB