What will tomorrow’s polls show – UP or DOWN?

The first number I hunt out when Lord Ashcroft publishes a new set of marginals’ polling is the average CON to LAB swing in the seats being surveyed. This gives a good pointer to the way things are going.

Tomorrow the good Lord is providing us with eight more separate constituency polls with the usual 1,000 sample in each.

The chart shows the movement in the swing in each wave of polling in LAB facing CON-held seats over the past year. The big move in his most recent wave was a small LAB recovery though the numbers are nothing like as good for the red team as they were last May.

What is tomorrow going to show?

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB