Memory of the 2011 SNP surge – what’s keeping the YES hopes alive and worrying NO
I’ve put this chart up before because it is so important in understanding the dynamics of the IndyRef campaign. For whenever YES is presented with a new poll they respond with what happened three years ago.
And who can blame them? SLAB had built up big leads in just about all the Holyrood polls and the speculation was that the SNP would lose power that May and the red team would be back in with the possibility of an overall majority.
It didn’t happen that way and the SNP performance on election day was substantially better than even YouGov’s eve of election survey.
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The issue of course was that none of the other contenders for First Minister had anything like the credibility of Alex Salmond.
Can he do that again in September? The polls say no and we see a huge gender divide with men being far more enthusiastic about change than women.
A separation from the UK into what can be portrayed as an uncertain future is something that many find hard to swallow.
But Salmond is a very skilled campaigner and if he can present the choice as between a Scottish sovereign government and one where London Tories have a say
Don’t rule out a YES victory.