LAB majority prediction from Electoral Calculus down from 92 to 74 following 4% average decline in UKIP poll share pic.twitter.com/3UwLUREYmb

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2013

Martin Baxter’s “poll of polls” has UKIP down 4

Each month the Cambridge turned city mathematician who has been running Electoral Calculus since the mid 1990s, Martin Baxter, publishes his latest general election projection based on his polling average applied to his Commons seat prediction model.

The latest is in the table above. He reports:

The main change to public opinion in June has been the slide in UKIP support, following their recent boost after the local elections. On average, the pollsters see a 4% decrease in UKIP support, with consequent increase in both Conservative and Liberal Democrat support. Overall, Labour is about constant, so this change is mildly positive for the Conservatives.

The impact has been that Martin’s June projection is for the Labour party to secure a 74 seat majority compared with a 92 seat one last month.

Martin’s Electoral Calculus must be just about the longest surviving political website in the country and I’ve always been impressed by the way he has adapted it to changing political conditions – most recently the emergence of UKIP.

He’s now saying that Farage’s party will need to be on a national vote share of 16% before it starts picking up seats.

Mike Smithson