This is one I suggested this morning

@LordAshcroft Polling suggestion CON-LAB marginals where the LDs had 15%+ share at GE2010 Seats like this pic.twitter.com/p8iotttWAg

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2013

In a Tweet before the weekend the biggest commissioner of private polling in the UK, Lord Ashcroft, suggested that he was looking out for interesting ideas for political polls.

One I put forward is in the Tweet reproduced above – CON-LAB battlegrounds where the LDs performed well in 2010.

Given that know that a large part of the yellow vote at the last election has migrated to Labour it would be really interesting to get a sense of what they are doing in the marginals.

As was mentioned on the thread this morning the standard approach of projecting seats from poll shares might not be that relevant. All that does on CON-LAB marginals is look at the change between the two main parties.

If the LD vote is disproportionately holding up in these seats then that is good news for the blues. If the other way then EdM is one step nearer Number 10.

I’m a great fan of Lord Ashcroft’s polling and I think we should welcome his openess in asking for ideas.

Mike Smithson

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