The chart showing the polling story of 2012: The CON post-budget decline and the rise of UKIP

The chart showing the polling story of 2012: The CON post-budget decline and the rise of UKIP

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Remember pre-budget when Farage’s party was on 1%?

While putting the above chart together one set of numbers stood out – the March 2012 ICM poll for the Guardian published on the day before George Osborne’s budget in March. The Tories had a lead of 3% over LAB while UKIP were at their lowest point for the year – just 1%.

How things look very different now with polling leads for between 8-13% being the norm and UKIP appearing to be the main beneficiary of the of the Tory decline.

    It is, of course, a long way off the next general election, 28 months, but simply to preserve the status quo in terms of seats the Tories need a lead over Labour of 7-8%

    At the moment that looks like a very big ask.

One big hope for the CON team is that the Ashcroft UKIP polling found that 44% of what he defined as “UKIP considerers” would switch to to stop a party they disliked winning at either a local or national level.

Mike Smithson

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