After last week’s shock YouGov 4% CON lead LAB edges back ahead

After last week’s shock YouGov 4% CON lead LAB edges back ahead

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And the female split is with the red team once again

One of the things that always seems to happen is that when a shock poll comes out it that people try to rationalise it with their own reasons and theories.

So the analysis of last week’s YouGov 4% CON lead poll showed that there had been marked move by female voters towards the Conservatives. All sorts of ideas were put forward including that maybe Labour, and Mr Corbyn, were being hit by the “MumsNet” effect because of support in the trans debate by the party.

I am told that there had been a fierce debate on Mums Net about the trans issue with huge threads and strong views being expressed.

I pointed out at the time that YouGov was alone with its women moving to CON trend and we should wait for other data.

Now we have it in the form of another YouGov poll with different top line results and gender voting split.

What we are seeing is the limitations of polling and the dangers of taking a cross tab and looking at it in isolation.

At this stage in the electoral polls are not seeking to predict the next election but acting as a barometer on current opinion.

So essentially we are where we were with the two main parties very much level pegging.

Mike Smithson


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