Huge blow for Salmond and the Scottish Independence campaign in first full post TV debate referendum pollAugust 9th, 2014
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2014
NEW #indyref Survation/Scottish Daily Mail (chg since Aug 3rd) Yes 37% (-3) No 50% (+4) Undec 13% (-1) Ex Undec Yes 43% (-4) No 57% (+4)
— Survation (@Survation) August 8, 2014
NO lead moves from 6% to 14% in less than a week
A new poll by Survation for the Scottish Daily Mail has just been published and sees a big post-TV debate reversal for YES. Fieldwork was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday.
Survation, it should be noted, has been one of the pollsters that has until now been recording the best figures for YES and in recent months has hardly been showing any movement. The key points:
If the referendum were held today, Scots would vote to remain in the UK – by a large margin: 57% would vote ‘No’, 43% would vote ‘Yes’
Lead for ‘No’ goes from 6 points to 14 points in less than a week, after months of very little change in independence referendum polls
This is the highest ‘No’ vote – and the biggest lead over ‘Yes’ – seen in a Survation poll since February.
Despite ‘Yes’ voters being more likely to have watched the debate (73% watched it compared to 66% of No voters), Darling still emerges as the clear winner – 53% of those who watched the debate thought Darling won, with 28% selecting Salmond as the winner
It really looks as though Tuesday night was a narrative changer and YES has a mountain to climb.
I’m expecting other IndyRef polling during the weekend,