The battle of the GE2015 predictors: Baxter versus Fisher

August 3rd, 2014

The chart shows the main predictions for GE2015 from the two leading predictors – the long-standing Electoral Calculus from Martin Baxter and the relatively new one from Stephen Fisher.

Ad can be see there is a huge gap between the two. Baxter points to a LAB majority Fisher to a hung parliament.

Both are based on current polling the main difference is that Fisher makes an adjustment to deal with the way polls have historically operated. The notable element here is the influence of the over-statement of LAB that was seen in many previous general elections but not 2010.

Baxter operates by looking at current polling and using his own average.

A feature of Fisher is that as we get closer to the election historic performance becomes less important.

My view is that the current political environment is totally unique and it is hard to look back at previous experience. There’s not been a formal coalition or a fixed term parliament act before.

Mike Smithson