Vote UKIP get a LAB government might not have the potency that many Tories think it has

July 29th, 2014

CON & LAB governments running neck and neck as preferred outcome amongst UKIP voters

You hear it all the time from the Blue teams when talking about the Ukip threat – that when faced with the prospect of a LAB government a large proportion will “come back home” and vote Tory.

That was a view that I broadly shared until last night before my detailed study of the aggregate data from the latest 14k sample Ashcroft marginals polling focused on CON held battlegrounds with LAB.

The above findings in the chart came as something of a surprise to me and I’m sure that I won’t be alone.

There were 2352 UKIP voters in the sample and the chart above shows how they split when faced with the very telling question of what would be their preferred general election outcome.

As can be seen fewer than one third (32%) wanted a CON government with 31% saying a LAB one. It’s that last figure that stands out.

That finding suggests that there are nearly as many potential LAB voters in the UKIP contingent as CON ones. Thus in the high octane campaigning environment of a tight marginal that the Tories might not have the advantage that they are widely perceived to have.

Vote UKIP get a LAB government might not be the compelling general election message that CON campaigners think it is.

Mike Smithson

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