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NO moves up 4 to take a 14% lead in latest ICM Scottish IndyRef YES poll

July 13th, 2014

What can YES do to reverse the trend?

There’s further polling confirmation this morning that support for a YES vote in the Scottish Independence referendum on September 18th is stalling with the July survey of voters north of the border by ICM for Scotland on Sunday.

The trend is in line with the recent YouGov, TNS-BMRB and Survation polls which all reported that the gap was remaining or getting wider.

In June ICM had, once you’ve excluded the don’t knows, a split of 45% YES to 55% NO. Today that is 43% – 57%.

The firm, along with Survation and Panelbase, has have tended to produce the best figures for YES. This is in contrast to YouGov and TNS-BMRB which have been producing the worst ones.

Scotland on Sunday quotes Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University as saying that Yes Scotland has much work to do before 18 September if it was to overturn the No campaign’s lead.

“This is not good news for Yes. According to most polling evidence including this – they have been flatlining for the last three month. “Yes obviously needs to make further progress. The question you constantly ask yourself is what are they going to do that is going to shift it?” .

Just over two months remain until polling day but much of that is the main holiday period when the opportunities for campaigning must be limited.

Latest YouGov sees LAB 5 ahead

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble