Survation finds CON to LAB swing of 7.3% with the LDs dropping to just 2% in four key commuter-belt marginals

June 24th, 2014

One thing’s already established for GE15. We are going to see far more different polling types than anything that has been experienced before at a British general election. We are also seeing a wider range of funders like today’s Survation poll in four key London commuter belt marginals which was commissioned by the RMT union.

Clearly the union has funded this for a purpose but the voting questions were asked first using Survation’s normal approach.

The seats surveyed by phone from June 17-19 were:-

LAB target #59: Stevenage (CON majority 8%)
LAB target #70: Milton Keynes South (CON majority 8%)
LAB target #93: Crawley (CON majority 12.5%)
LAB target #95: Reading West (CON majority 12.6%)

These are all constituencies with large communities of railway commuters where the RMT believes that government policy towards the railways could have an electoral impact.

What’s striking about this poll is that the findings are better for Labour than just about anything we have seen in recent months. Also the decline in the Lib Dem vote to just 2% is far far more marked than the national polling is showing.

The Lib Dem share is a direct product of the party making almost no effort in parliamentary seats where it is not in contention. The effect is that we could see huge variations in its performances with, of course, it doing better where it matters – the seats it will be fighting hard to retain.

The poll finds strong support for bringing local rail franchise holders back into public ownership. Just under one half of 2010 CON voters who had a view backed this proposition.

Mike Smithson

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