Survation finds that YES could have an 8% lead if Scottish voters thought Dave would win GE15

June 12th, 2014

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There are two issues with this poll which make it stand it: the closeness of the outcome compared with other recent surveys and the Cameron question.

The main finding with changes on last time:-

YES 39 (+2)
NO 44 (-3)
DK 17 (NC)
Without DKs YES 47 NO 53

This is one of the closest margins yet in any poll and is very much against the run of other recent polling. It will certainly give the YES campaign a boost but so far it has not seen any movement in the betting.

I never quite know what to make of findings like responses to the Cameron question. This had the full wording:

If you were certain David Cameron was going to remain UK Prime Minister after the Westminster General Election in 2015, how would you vote in the independence referendum when voters will be asked, “Should Scotland be an independent country”?

This form of conditional voting intention question asked immediately after the standard one can be said to be leading. It is hard to frame wording that doesn’t do this. The very fact that it is being put is suggesting to respondents that this might be an issue with their referendum voting choice.

Whatever this type of finding is going to be picked on and highlighted in the coming three months. Voting YES is going to be presented as a means of avoiding a Tory government. The question is whether this will resonate enough to tip the outcome in that direction.

  • The other big polling story overnight has been the 6% share that YouGov is reporting for the LDs – the lowest ever from the firm. I plan to cover this in more detail in a later post.
  • Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble